Investors should prepare for worst over US presidential election

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If result is contested it could drag on for weeks and trigger a major risk-off episode in markets

Opinion polls in the US have long pointed to the strong possibility of a Democratic party sweep in the election on 3 November, with Joe Biden winning the presidency and Democrats gaining control of the US Senate and holding on to the House of Representatives, putting an end to divided government.

But if the election turns out to be mostly a referendum on Donald Trump, Democrats might win just the White House while failing to retake the Senate. And one cannot rule out the possibility of Donald Trump navigating a narrow path to an electoral college victory, and of Republicans holding on to the Senate, thus reproducing the status quo.

Related: Joe Biden looks like a safe pair of hands for the US economy | Jeffrey Frankel

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